By Jamie Martin
Egg prices have declined sharply in recent months, reaching levels not seen since 2023. Agricultural economists say the main reason behind the drop is a temporary oversupply of eggs. Farmers increased production during winter after expecting stronger impacts from highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, which has affected poultry operations across the country.
“Growers, anticipating negative effects from avian influenza during the winter, increased the number of eggs they produced,” said Jada Thompson, associate professor and economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “That left growers with plenty of eggs, and consumers are the ones who get to benefit.”
When major outbreaks did not significantly affect commercial egg-laying flocks, producers were left with higher-than-expected supplies. This surplus pushed wholesale egg prices lower, creating short-term benefits for consumers. However, the situation presents challenges for farmers because egg production typically operates on small profit margins. Lower prices mean reduced returns and tighter financial conditions for many producers.
Experts note that egg supply chains are highly dynamic but also limited by biological factors. Producers cannot immediately reduce supply once birds are in production. Even if farmers begin cutting egg sets, it may take several months before market supplies to adjust. This means current high supply levels could continue for five to six months if no major disruptions occur.
The poultry industry remains cautious because HPAI continues to pose risks. Since the current disease cycle began in 2022, millions of birds have been affected nationwide, including both commercial and backyard flocks. While recent data shows fewer commercial flocks impacted compared to previous months, the threat has not disappeared. New outbreaks could quickly reduce supply and change price trends.
Economists believe producers may soon slow replenishment to stabilize prices. If supply decreases while demand remains steady, egg prices could begin rising again. The market therefore remains uncertain, shaped by disease risks, production decisions, and consumer demand patterns.
In summary, today’s lower egg prices reflect strong supply conditions rather than long-term stability. As producers adjust output and monitor disease risks, consumers and farmers alike may see market conditions shift again in the near future.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-chubarovy
Categories: National