By Jamie Martin
The US agricultural trade balance has shifted dramatically in 2025, with the sector posting its largest-ever deficit for the first six months of the year. USDA data shows a $28.6 billion shortfall by June, with a monthly gap of $4.1 billion — up 14% from last year.
This marks a reversal from decades of surpluses, influenced by changing consumer preferences, limited production growth, and global trade realignments. President Donald Trump’s renewed trade war with China has played a significant role, prompting China to source more food and feed products from Brazil instead of the US.
Soybeans have been hit particularly hard. As of late July, US exporters had sold just over 3 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season — the lowest for that date in 20 years. China, the top global soybean buyer, had yet to purchase any new-crop US beans, the latest start since 2005.
Brazilian exporters have taken advantage of market shifts, with companies like Minerva SA boosting beef shipments to the US ahead of new tariffs. Domestically, more US crops are being processed into biofuels, reducing the amount available for export.
While the overall US trade deficit in goods and services narrowed to $60.2 billion in June, agriculture has not shared in that improvement. US farm exports to China fell to $5.5 billion in the first half of 2025, down from $11.8 billion a year earlier, as both nations increased tariffs above 125%.
The USDA forecasts the agricultural trade deficit will reach $49.5 billion in fiscal 2025, with imports projected at $220 billion and exports at $170.5 billion. Without changes in trade dynamics, the gap is likely to keep widening.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-artqu
Categories: National