Stable durum prices despite harvest season

By Scout Nelson

As the durum wheat harvest progresses across North America, prices have remained unexpectedly stable, according to Erica Olson, market development and research manager at the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

Despite the beginning of the harvest season, where prices typically face downward pressure, durum is trading between $6 and $6.50, maintaining the same level as prior to the harvest. This stability is viewed positively, especially given the slight reductions in yield forecasts by the USDA and Ag Canada.

In the U.S., durum production is estimated at 77 million bushels, down 14 percent from earlier predictions, reflecting the impact of hot and dry conditions. Similarly, in Canada, production estimates have been adjusted down to 220 million bushels, a 4 percent decrease, also due to challenging weather conditions.

However, these adjustments are not causing supply concerns as both the U.S. and Canadian crops are significantly larger than last year—30 percent and almost 50 percent higher respectively. The quality of the early harvest in regions like North Dakota shows promising signs, with good protein levels and minimal damage despite some reported lower test weights.

Globally, the International Grains Council noted minor revisions to global durum production, with significant cuts in Europe potentially marking the lowest production in 30 years. Despite these international adjustments, North American markets remain relatively calm due to higher projected exports from Canada and a strong demand forecast for North Africa and Europe, compensating for the lower domestic production in those regions.

As the harvest continues, all eyes will be on market demand and the completion of the harvest, particularly considering no current U.S. sales to last year's top buyer, Algeria, which remains a point of concern for U.S. exporters.

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