By Jamie Martin
Rising conflict between Iran and Israel is once again highlighting the vulnerability of global supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital corridor, is essential for transporting fuel and fertilizer across the globe.
Roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum supply, including crude oil and refined products, flows through the Strait.
Although most U.S. oil does not come from the region, prices are set globally. Diesel and fertilizer, both essential to U.S. farming, are immediately affected by price shocks.
A recent example: in June 2025, Brent crude jumped from $65 to $78 per barrel due to conflict-related concerns. In past events, similar disruptions caused nitrogen fertilizer prices to spike by more than 150%.
The region also plays a major role in global nitrogen exports. Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia collectively supplied about 25% of global nitrogen exports in 2024. U.S. farmers rely on imports for nearly a quarter of total fertilizer use. For phosphate, nearly half of U.S. imports come from the Middle East.
“If shipping lanes through Hormuz are disrupted, global markets would be primed for similar price jolts,” the report warns.
While the Gulf represents just 2% of U.S. agricultural exports, top buyers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia purchased over $2.8 billion in farm products in 2024. Crops like tree nuts and feed ingredients are vulnerable to rising transport costs and insurance premiums.
Although trade continues, instability in the Strait could limit summer buying opportunities and reduce input availability. With input prices already rising, farmers may face increased costs heading into the next season.
In this volatile environment, U.S. producers are encouraged to stay informed, monitor fertilizer futures, and plan ahead for possible disruptions in supply chains and prices.
Photo Credit: usda
Categories: National