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NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER

2024 forage forecast for North Dakota - key influences

2024 forage forecast for North Dakota - key influences


By Scout Nelson

Looking ahead to the 2024 grazing season, North Dakota's forage outlook is being shaped by several critical factors. According to Kevin Sedivec, an NDSU rangeland management specialist, last year's fall moisture and grazing management, along with this year's spring rain, are pivotal.

"In 2023, the timing of rain in each region is what drove forage production," explains Sedivec. This varied impact meant some areas saw excellent forage production while others struggled.

The foundation for 2024's forage starts with the fall moisture from 2023. Grass hay and pasture forage, primarily consisting of cool-season grasses, rely on fall tiller development for early spring growth. Sedivec notes, "The absence of fall tillers can delay spring green-up by up to two weeks and can impact overall forage production by over 50%."

Fall moisture varied across the state, with most areas receiving normal to above-normal precipitation. Regions like northeastern North Dakota faced drought conditions, affecting their forage production outlook.

Fall grazing management also plays a crucial role. Overgrazing during fall or winter can hinder spring growth, necessitating new tiller development in April and May."Heavy grazing during the fall and/or winter that resulted in the removal of the growing point from tillers will cause additional stress and tiller mortality," Sedivec adds.

Winter snow and spring rain are crucial for forage production in North Dakota, but snow contributes minimally to plant growth moisture. Spring rain is the most important moisture for overall forage production, especially for cool-season grasses dominating the forage landscape.

Planning for the 2024 season involves preparing for various precipitation scenarios. Normal spring rain, coupled with good fall moisture and grazing management, should lead to a typical grazing season. Challenges arise with below-normal fall tiller production or heavy fall grazing.

"If you grazed your tillers short last fall or during the winter months, expect a delay in green-up and forage production in 2024," Sedivec advises. The timing of pasture turnout and managing stocking rates are essential to avoid overgrazing, especially during periods of low production.

Sedivec and Meehan emphasize the importance of timely precipitation and management practices in ensuring healthy forage production. With the unpredictable nature of weather, having a drought plan with defined trigger dates is crucial for risk management.

This forward-looking approach encourages North Dakota ranchers to prepare for various forage production scenarios in 2024, underscoring the importance of strategic planning and management for a successful grazing season.

Photo Credit -gettyimages-ianchrisgraham

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Categories: North Dakota, Crops, Hay & Forage

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