The U.S. durum market has been sensitive to global happenings recently. Significant factors affecting the price include a projected smaller durum crop in Canada and concerns about European durum quality. Jim Peterson, from the North Dakota Wheat Commission, shared that the Canadian crop's reduced size and persistent dryness play a major role.
Early-season projections for the Canadian crop reached 220 million bushels. Now, some expect it to be as low as 130 million bushels.
In 2021, drought conditions severely affected the Canadian durum crop, bringing its production down to 110 million bushels. Though 2023 isn't as bad as 2021, the numbers are still concerning. Precise figures are awaited from Canada to confirm speculations.
Europe faces challenges due to dryness in Spain and France and quality concerns in Italy. Durum prices have increased to over $13 per bushel, with high-quality durum fetching $4.50 more per bushel than feed-quality durum.
The Minneapolis Durum Index shows prices at $10.50 per bushel, a considerable increase from the mid-June level of $7.85.
Current harvest progress is crucial. Montana is ahead of its usual pace, with 27% harvested, whereas North Dakota lags with only 4% harvested as of mid-August. Weather conditions have varied, influencing the crops' progress. USDA's latest yield estimates reflect the current situation. Montana’s yield is estimated at 28 bushels per acre, and North Dakota's at 35 bushels per acre.
Interestingly, USDA's August report revealed a 200,000-acre increase in planted durum acreage from June. This includes 150,000 acres in North Dakota and 50,000 in Montana. Although unexpected, this provides a buffer against potential yield shortages.
Demand remains steady, domestic food use remains similar, and exports slightly increase. Peterson predicts that weather conditions will significantly impact the quality and quantity of the U.S. durum crop, despite rising global prices.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-alex-chai
Categories: North Dakota, Crops