By Scout Nelson
Beef production and trade are important parts of the U.S. agricultural economy. Beef exports, imports, and domestic consumption are often debated, particularly regarding where U.S. beef is sold and which products enter the country. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) helps explain how the country produces, imports, exports, and uses beef.
Jon T. Biermacher, NDSU Professor of Practice and Extension Livestock Development Specialist, reviewed USDA supply and use estimates to explain the U.S. beef market in 2026. His analysis examined domestic production, international trade, variety meats, and the possible effects of additional beef imports on cattle prices.
U.S. Beef Supply and Production Estimates
The data are sourced from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published on September 11, 2026, by the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist. The report is available here.
The report estimates that the country began in 2026 with 577 million pounds of beef carried over from 2025. Domestic beef production is expected to reach about 24.945 billion pounds, while imports are estimated at 6.262 billion pounds. Together, these sources provide a total supply of approximately 31.784 billion pounds.
Imports mainly include lean beef cuts and processed lean meat used in products such as ground beef. These products help meet different needs in the U.S. market.
The USDA estimates that 565 million pounds of beef remain in storage at the end of 2026 for use in the following year. Total use, including exports and domestic use, is estimated at 28.876 billion pounds.
Most U.S. Beef Production Serves Domestic Consumers
A common concern is that U.S. meat companies export most high-quality beef and bring lower-quality beef into the country. However, the USDA estimates provide a broader view of the market.
Of the approximately 25.5 billion pounds of beef expected to be produced in the U.S. in 2026, about 2.343 billion pounds of muscle meat and variety meats are expected to be exported. This represents about 9.2% of domestic production.
The analysis estimates that nearly 91% of domestic beef production is consumed within the United States. This share has remained fairly steady, with small changes over several decades.
Canada and Mexico are important trading partners. About 469 million pounds of U.S. beef exports are expected to go to these two countries in 2026.
Private businesses, rather than governments, directly buy and sell beef across international markets. Government policies can affect trade and prices, but meat companies make the actual buying and selling decisions.
Variety Meats Provide Additional Market Value
Beef production includes more than the muscle cuts commonly sold as steaks, roasts, and ground beef. It also produces variety meats, such as hearts, livers, tongues, tails, and kidneys.
The USDA estimated that U.S. beef production generates about 1.247 million pounds of edible offal and variety meats in 2026. This represents around 4% of total beef production.
Of this amount, approximately 586 million pounds are expected to be exported. That equals about 25% of total U.S. beef exports. Some international markets have a strong demand for these products, while other countries increase their use of animal protein as incomes rise.
The variety meats that remain in the United States are used mainly in animal feed, including pet food and feed for fish farms. Smaller amounts are used in processed foods, such as hot dogs and bologna.
Other products from cattle processing, including hides, and bones, also provide income for the beef industry. These additional products help businesses gain value from more parts of each animal.
High-Quality Beef Supports Export Markets
Muscle cuts account for about 75% of U.S. beef exports in 2026, or roughly 1.757 billion pounds. International buyers often pay higher prices for certain U.S. beef cuts, particularly premium products.
These products reach consumers in higher-income households, as well as restaurants, cruise ships, and resorts around the world.
Demand for high-quality beef can also support cattle producers who raise animals with desirable genetic traits. Meat companies that find international buyers for premium beef help create demand for cattle that meet those market needs.
Exports therefore serve a role beyond moving beef overseas. They can provide additional markets for U.S. producers and support the value of certain cattle and beef products.
Beef Imports and Possible Market Effects
The USDA estimates that beef imports will reach about 6.262 billion pounds in 2026. This equals roughly 25% of domestic beef production.
A proposed trade arrangement announced by the White House on August 29, 2026, would allow an additional 660 million pounds of Argentine beef to enter the United States. Based on reports discussed in the analysis, the additional imports are not expected to take place in 2026.
If the full additional amount were included in the estimates, imports would rise to about 27% of domestic beef production. This change would increase the share by approximately two percentage points.
The analysis expects this additional volume to have a limited effect on prices for weaned calves at livestock auctions. However, changes in trade policy can still create uncertainty and short-term movement in cattle futures markets.
Focus on the Fundamentals of Cattle Markets
Beef supply and use data help explain how the US market operates. Domestic consumers use most U.S. beef production, while imports help supply the market and exports create additional demand for American beef products.
Trade policies can affect market expectations, but cattle prices also depend on broader economic conditions, supply, demand, and other market factors. Ranchers and cattle producers can use reliable data to better understand these trends and make informed business decisions.
Following the main supply and demand factors, rather than reacting only to headlines, can help producers assess changes in the cattle market.
The USDA's estimates offer a useful overview of the U.S. beef industry in 2026 and show how domestic production and international trade work together to serve consumers and support agricultural businesses.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-sstajic
Categories: North Dakota, Livestock, Beef Cattle