By Scout Nelson
A new research study highlights a possible link between rising U.S. agricultural exports and increasing crop production risks.
Jiyeon Kim, a research assistant professor in agribusiness and applied economics at North Dakota State University (NDSU), co-led the study, which was recently presented at the SCC-76 Annual Meeting in Kansas City.
The research team, including Kim and Jisang Yu from Korea University, analyzed over 30 years of data from 1991 to 2023.
They studied how exposure to export markets affects the stability of crop yields across various U.S. counties. Their findings suggest that greater export volumes can lead to higher yield risks, especially for corn and soybean farmers.
The researchers used the loss-cost ratio (LCR), which is the total indemnity payments divided by insurance liabilities. A higher LCR means greater production risk.
The study found that LCR tends to increase with export growth, particularly due to damage from extreme weather like droughts and too much rainfall.
The researchers believe this may be happening because farmers try to increase profits by planting the same crop over large areas (monocropping) or expanding into less suitable land. These strategies can make crops more vulnerable to climate shocks like floods and heatwaves.
While selling to international markets brings higher income potential, it also adds new risks. The study recommends future research to explore how trade affects price risks and to create localized tools for tracking export exposure.
With climate change continuing to affect farming conditions, understanding how global trade shapes local risk is becoming more important.
Photo Credit: north-dakota-state-university
Categories: North Dakota, Crops, Education, Weather