Record wheat yields boost US supply

By Scout Nelson

U.S. wheat yields are predicted to rise significantly in 2024, particularly in North Dakota, where record-high yields are anticipated to enhance grain supplies and lower food inflation.

This encouraging trend comes after a difficult time marked by volatile wheat prices and supply chain interruptions that had an impact on a range of food items.

Michael Hirtzer of Bloomberg reports that this year's wheat crops in North Dakota are experiencing unheard-of growth. The yearly crop tour, which included millers, bakers, and wheat traders, showed unusually green fields.

Despite recent hot and dry weather, favorable rainfall in May and June after a quick spring sowing season has created the circumstances for exceptional harvests.

The tour's final data estimates that North Dakota’s primary variety of hard red spring wheat will yield 54.5 bushels per acre, a 15% increase from the previous year, nearing the USDA's projection of 56 bushels per acre—an all-time high for the state. Achieving these yields would mark North Dakota’s highest output ever, significantly boosting U.S. grain supplies.

Nationally, the USDA’s July Wheat Outlook report projects that U.S. all-wheat production for the 2024/25 crop year will reach 2,008 million bushels, the largest since the 2016/17 season. This represents a 134 million bushel increase from the previous month and an 11% rise compared to the prior year.

The surge is mainly due to increases in Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring wheat varieties, while White and Durum wheat production has seen smaller increases, and Soft Red Winter wheat production is down from last year’s bumper crop.

Stronger wheat supplies are expected to enhance U.S. competitiveness in the global market, with exports forecasted to reach 825 million bushels, the highest since the 2020/21 crop year. This export boost is anticipated to benefit U.S. wheat producers as global demand remains strong.

Domestically, the increase in wheat supplies could reduce food inflation, particularly for products like bagels that have recently seen price hikes. The expansion in grain supplies is likely to ease pressure on food prices, providing relief to consumers facing higher costs for staple items.

In summary, the projected record-high wheat yields for North Dakota and the overall increase in U.S. wheat production are set to have wide-ranging effects. Enhanced supplies are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures on food products and strengthen the U.S. position in the global wheat market. Both the agricultural sector and consumers stand to benefit from these positive developments.

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