The fourth week of May had the grains pushing forward, starting with solid gains, stumbling slightly mid-week, but then recovering to end the week with solid gains in most contracts.
The weather forecasts were calling for hot and dry conditions. The 1-to-5-day forecast, 6-to-10-day forecast, and 11-to-15-day forecast were all calling for above to much above normal temps. Precipitation was included but amounts were expected to be below normal for most of the Corn Belt. The May 30th Drought Monitor Map continued to show an expanding drought situation in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. This is concerning as it is still very early in the crop year.
The May 30 Crop Progress report brought mixed news to the market. We continue to see good planting progress. The last week of May showed North Dakota planting 31% or 7.165 million acres of principle crop acreage.
As of Sunday, North Dakota had 72% of its corn crop planted, well ahead of 51% last year, but near 73% average. Emerged was 19%, ahead of 6% last year, but behind 27% average.
The last planting date for most of the state was May 25. Richland, Sargent, Ransom and Cass counties had until May 31. In the last week of May, North Dakota farmers planted 1.5 million acres of corn.
Soybean planting progress was estimated at 53%, well ahead of 21% last year, but near 55% for the five-year average. Emerged was 12%, ahead of 1% last year, but near 15% average.
Minnesota is at 86% complete, or 13% above average. Producers in North Dakota have until June 10 (final plant date for crop insurance) to plant soybeans.
Hard red spring wheat planting progress as of Sunday was estimated at 64% on May 21 and 85% by May 28 versus 86% average. Montana is trailing by 10%. North Dakota is reporting planting progress at 79% complete versus 48% last week and 81% average.
After struggling early in the session Tuesday, wheat and corn were able to push higher while soybeans remained in the red. Early selling pressure for wheat came from reports that a total of seven cargos of EU wheat are destined for the U.S., five from Poland and two from Germany. It really makes no sense that the U.S. is importing wheat when our own export sale pace is at its lowest level in 40 years. I get the symbolism of importing wheat, telling the railroad that we can ship grain from other countries into the east coast cheaper than we can rail our own supplies across the country. This same scenario plays out in soybeans every year as well. It seems like someone is asleep at the wheel here.
But wheat was able to shake off that news and push higher, along with corn. The support is coming from North Dakota’s slow planting progress and the likelihood that not all of the state’s intended spring wheat and corn acreage will get planted. Planting progress has certainly sped up the past week, but there are still a lot of regions that are still hunting for dry fields. Even Dr. Michael Cordonnier has lowered his U.S. corn acreage intention 500,000 acres due to the wet conditions.
The other issue is the Corn Belt is starting to get dry. Last week, little to no rain was reported in northern Illinois. At this point no real measurable rain is expected in the major growing regions of the U.S. for the next 15 days (first week of June). And temps are expected to be above to much above normal for this time frame as well. This puts a different twist on the forecast. It is almost a repeat of last year for the northern Plains, except the rain is being pulled out of forecast a month earlier.
Soybeans were on the defense throughout the session with most of the selling tied to pressure from Dr. Michael Cordonnier increasing soybean acreage 500,000 acres due to the slow planting pace in the northern Plains. It is more likely those acres will go to prevented planting instead of soybeans, but there will likely be a slight increase in soybeans acres due to switching.
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is estimating Argentina’s soybean acreage abandonment at over 5 million acres due to the drought. That is roughly 13% of their acreage. So far yield reports are coming in at an average of 22.6 bushels/acre.
The grains put in a mixed performance on Wednesday with some of the action being hard to explain. Usually, wheat and corn trade in tandem with each other, but that was not the case Wednesday as wheat came under heavy selling pressure while corn advanced. To be honest, it is hard to even explain why wheat took such a beating.
Exports continue to be lackluster at best, but with one week left in wheat’s marketing year, it appears that once USDA adds in the donations and flour exports, wheat exports will be close to estimates.
Fundamentally wheat is undervalued and most of the news continues to be friendly, it’s just wheat cannot get any traction for the news. It appears that not all of the intended spring wheat acres will get planted as producers concentrate on getting corn and soybeans planted. Ukraine is reporting Russia has shut down the use of the ports at Pivdennyi. This is slowing the movement of grains out of Ukraine.
Source: agweek.com
Photo Credit: Kinze Manufacturing
Categories: North Dakota, Crops, Soybeans, Wheat